Economic Opinions

It's clear that global recession fears are fading, economies are stabilizing, and the Fed is likely to make its first rate cut this September. By the last quarter, we'll see a gradual shift towards monetary abundance, with governments stimulating growth, which should boost stock markets. I'm bullish on stocks over the next 1.5 to 2 years.

AI is now a major force in the market, with Nvidia proving it's not just hype but the future. High-tech chips are dominating, but some of the other "Magnificent 7" companies have been underwhelming in their AI performance. Google, in particular, hasn't capitalized on its vast data resources as effectively as expected.

Entrepreneurship is booming, driven by online scalability. Small and mid-cap tech startups have immense potential in the coming years, and I'll be focusing more on these than the established giants. Traditional big banks are struggling against digital fintechs, which excel in customer satisfaction and flexible products. Companies like Ally, Sofi, and Wise are particularly promising.

The EV market remains volatile, especially with Chinese competition. Elon Musk continues to make bold moves, and despite some political risks, I believe Tesla's upcoming products like the Semi, Cybertruck, and Robotaxi will propel it into the trillion-dollar club. Chinese stocks are cheaper but riskier due to increased Western pressure and competition. While I still like Pinduoduo, China's lack of transparency is concerning, making it a small part of my portfolio.

Europe is lagging behind the global recovery, but I expect some optimism in the next few years, especially in the UK and Germany. Political challenges will persist, and the US election will influence global economic trends. I foresee a shift towards deflation next year, with rate cuts positively impacting real estate and related industries. My top pick is RH, which has made significant investments and is poised for a strong 2025.

Japanese equities are set for a boost from structural reforms and investments in the semiconductor sector. With the yen at multi-decade lows, Japan is an attractive destination for tourists and investors alike.

Sociologically, post-COVID anxiety, burnout, and depression are on the rise, driving more people to travel and seek entertainment. Social media and digital disruption will remain dominant, and I'm also bullish on the travel industry.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to create uncertainty, making oil and gold prices volatile. As for the Russia-Ukraine war, it's clear that Putin has lost the strategic advantage.

In Turkey, more rational economic policies have led to improved credit ratings, though the country is still dealing with the fallout from years of mismanagement. The real estate market is overpriced, and hyperinflation has deterred international tourists. Despite the volatility, I see a strong buying opportunity in Turkish Airlines (THYAO) stock, which is absurdly cheap given its growth, strong numbers, and positive brand image.

In summary, keep an eye on interest rate cuts, a real estate rebound, and the US election, but the overall outlook is positive.